By Tang Bohu
Following reports of Myanmar’s military junta head General Min Aung Hlaing’s attempt to visit China being politely declined, Myanmar has instead received strong support from another country.
A delegation led by Deputy Minister of Defense of Russia, General Aleksandr Fomin, arrived in Naypyidaw recently to participate in the celebrations marking the 79th anniversary of the formation of the Myanmar Armed Forces and engage in discussions with Myanmar on military cooperation issues.
According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, during the meeting with Min Aung Hlaing, Aleksandr Fomin praised the friendly relations between Russia and Myanmar, emphasizing Myanmar’s long-standing and significant strategic partnership with Russia in the Asia-Pacific region. In the face of sanctions imposed by Western countries on both nations, they affirmed their commitment to mutual support.
Both sides extensively discussed the implementation of military cooperation projects between the two countries, emphasizing further strengthening bilateral relations. Over 50 bilateral military cooperation activities, including mutual visits by armed forces commanders, are scheduled for 2024.
Despite the difficult situation of the military junta in Myanmar amid the country’s descent into civil war, Russia continues to actively deepen military cooperation with Myanmar. This underscores Russia’s ongoing strategic engagement in Southeast Asia.
Undoubtedly, Southeast Asia currently occupies a secondary position in Russia’s overall geopolitical strategy due to factors such as distance and declining national power. However, Moscow has not completely abandoned its Southeast Asian footprint. It continues to actively strengthen cooperation with Southeast Asian countries to break Western sanctions, develop its economy, and expand its geopolitical influence.
Defense cooperation has always been a key entry point for Russia’s engagement with Southeast Asian countries. Energy and military cooperation serve as primary avenues for achieving this goal. With its oil and gas production zones bordering the Bay of Bengal, there is a demand for oil and gas development cooperation. Meanwhile, amid ongoing domestic turmoil, Myanmar’s need for continuous military development makes it a key partner for Russia.
Currently, Russia and Myanmar have a solid foundation for military cooperation. In November last year, a squadron of the Russian Navy, consisting of two 1155-class large anti-submarine ships and one tanker, visited the port of Yangon in southern Myanmar and organized the first-ever joint naval exercises in modern history between the two countries with the Myanmar Navy.
Furthermore, Russia is a significant supplier of weaponry to the Myanmar military. In September last year, two Sukhoi Su-30SME fighter jets produced in Russia were officially delivered to the Myanmar military and formally commissioned two months later, becoming the mainstay of the Myanmar Air Force’s ground attack capabilities.
Russia has always attached great importance to military trade cooperation with Myanmar. Russian Ambassador to Myanmar, Azizov, once praised Myanmar as a very reliable partner, consistently paying its dues on time and in full.
From this perspective, Aleksandr Fomin’s praise of the Myanmar military’s modern weapons and equipment, despite significant losses of heavy equipment on the battlefield against the coalition forces, likely hints at Russia’s willingness to provide weapons to Myanmar, potentially transforming the Myanmar military into “the most efficient armed force in the region.”
From the perspective of the Min Aung Hlaing government, receiving support from Russia at this moment carries significant weight. Since the arrest of Aung San Suu Kyi and others in 2021, the Myanmar military junta has faced immense domestic and international pressure. With the onset of the “10.27” operation and the escalation of the Myanmar civil war, the military junta has received limited international support. As one of the permanent members of the United Nations Security Council, Russia’s support to the military junta can undoubtedly help Min Aung Hlaing alleviate external pressure.
Moreover, Aleksandr Fomin’s statement potentially opens up avenues for assistance from Russia to Min Aung Hlaing. Given that the primary task of the Myanmar military junta remains resisting the coalition forces’ offensive, holding onto core control areas with a majority Burmese population such as Naypyidaw and Yangon, and then launching counterattacks to regain control of some border areas.
To achieve this, the Min Aung Hlaing government has invoked conscription for the first time, announcing that all eligible young people in Myanmar must serve two years in the military from April this year to address the issue of insufficient military personnel.
Once the manpower issue is addressed, the Min Aung Hlaing government naturally needs to address the supply of weapons and ammunition. With substantial losses of weapons on the front lines, and the difficulty in acquiring sufficient weapons and ammunition due to the civilian arms confiscation, it is unlikely that China, which was once a significant arms supplier to the Myanmar military, will provide weapons to the military junta, as it remains neutral and actively advocates for peace talks.
For the current military junta, even if Russia could deliver a shipment of weapons, it would alleviate the immediate crisis. If Russia could deliver all the remaining Sukhoi Su-30SME fighter jets in the short term, the Myanmar military could further enhance its air superiority and combat the coalition forces effectively.
The Myanmar military junta also seems confident in Russia’s strong support. Min Aung Hlaing delivered a speech during the night parade commemorating the 79th anniversary of the founding of the Myanmar Armed Forces, harshly criticizing civilian militias for undermining the “federal-based union path.” The Myanmar military is striving to restore peace and stability in Myanmar, but this requires internal unity.
However, Min Aung Hlaing seems to have overlooked the fact that amidst the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, even Russia itself requires assistance from countries like North Korea for its own weapons and ammunition supply. Therefore, it remains uncertain when Russia will be able to assist the Myanmar military as indicated by Aleksandr Fomin, helping them become the “most effective armed force.”
If Min Aung Hlaing wants to avoid ending up empty-handed, he must devise a way to ensure that the Myanmar military is not defeated by the coalition forces before Russia’s assistance truly arrives in Myanmar.
