Sometime in the spring of 1988, the last Delta Connection puddle jumper departed Lakeland, Florida and never looked back. Since then, there have been exactly zero scheduled commercial airline flights. That will be changing, likely in May or June, when Avelo rolls into town. This is big news, but it is not without risk to the airline, the airport, and the local government.
Lakeland sits between Orlando and Tampa just off the traffic-choked hell-road known as I-4, ranked third deadliest in the country. Tourists know I-4 well since it is the road you need to get to all the most important spots: Walt Disney World, Universal Studios, Florida Polytechnic University, and of course, the Howard Johnson Lakeland. (Yes, if there’s a hotel brand you thought had died long ago, it probably exists somewhere near I-4.)
Of course, Walt Disney World is the biggest attraction around, and you don’t actually need to take I-4 to get there from Orlando’s main airport, MCO. It’s just about 20 minutes away. Let’s take a look at a map to make this easier to follow.
You would think that MCO would be able to serve all the traffic anyone would need in the region, but that’s not the case. There’s Allegiant’s main base of operations in Orlando up at Sanford, a good 45 minutes away from Disney World to the northeast . Allegiant has done well for itself up there, though it recently decided to go back into MCO again to try to get more of the traffic that it misses.
Tampa’s airport lies only a bit more than an hour and a quarter southwest of Disney World taking I-4… if you’re willing to drive at 2 in the morning. I-4 can be such a mess that long delays are the norm, especially on weekends. It’s not really viable as an alternate airport for Disney, but of course, it doesn’t need to be. It’s a major city with plenty of business and beaches to create more than enough demand on its own. If people fly into Tampa to reach Orlando for some reason, that’s just a perk for the airport.
With this backdrop, we can now look at Lakeland. Lakeland sits closer to Tampa than Orlando, but it’s only 45 minutes away from Disney World (again, with no traffic, so… it’ll be longer than that). Lakeland’s claim to fame is as the headquarters of Publix supermarket and the home of Detroit Tiger spring training, when happy, frozen people still hold out hope that the team won’t suck. It has just over 100,000 people, but the larger Polk County region has just shy of 800,000. This is a drop in the bucket compared to the millions in the Orlando and Tampa areas.
Lakeland does have an airport though, and it’s one that’s well known to the general aviation crowd. Like Oshkosh, it hosts a big fly-in event. SUN ‘n FUN is not as big as AirVenture in Oshkosh, but it is number two, and this year will be the 50th event. That’s held around spring break, and the place is absolutely booming for a blink of an eye. And then, it’s not.
Lakeland has had an awful record when it comes to commercial service. It’s not that it hasn’t worked. It’s that airlines haven’t even been willing to try. Since that last Delta Connection flight operated, I’ve found only one example of an airline actually operating anything notable. It was the public charter company –Direct Air — which took a swing starting in June 2011. It flew to Myrtle Beach, Niagara Falls, and Springfield (IL) that summer, shifting Myrtle Beach to Plattsburgh (NY) in winter. The company made it into March 2012 before failing completely. Nobody has touched Lakeland since.
This might seem rather surprising. After all, Florida had been so hot during the pandemic. In the last couple of years, we’ve seen airlines take a run at Daytona Beach, Melbourne, St Augustine, and Vero Beach. But Lakeland? Nope.
But here’s the thing. All of those airports sit on the beach, or right near one. There are people who go to these places, sometimes driving from nearby states because it’s easier. The airlines that went into these markets were hoping to bring people to town who didn’t want to bother flying to Jacksonville or Orlando and drive. Maybe some service would work, and some probably wouldn’t.
Apologies to the people of Lakeland, but there is no “there” there. Outside of March when the Tigers are in town for spring training, nobody wants to go there for vacation. They either want to see the mouse or they want to go to the beach. Flying into Lakeland doesn’t make it a quicker and easier trip vs driving from nearby states. It makes it longer. It’s an alternate airport, or at least it wants to be.
The problem with that, of course, is that it’s hard to be an alternate airport to Orlando and Tampa, both well-run airports that have no trouble attracting airlines. The benefit of Lakeland is a lot less than if you find a good alternate to a very high-priced and congested airport like Avelo did with New Haven to LaGuardia.
Avelo has done well in New Haven, but it hasn’t found that blockbuster second base. Apparently, Avelo thinks Lakeland will make that happen. At the end of last year, Avelo entered into an agreement with the airport and the county. This is what will be handed to Avelo:
- just under $2 million will be put into the airport to expand the security checkpoint, add more holdroom seating, create an exit from aircraft to bypass the holdrooms, and improve rental car facilities
- a maintenance facility will be built for Avelo
- over $1 million a year will go to marketing and promotion
This will go into effect on May 1, and it’s a 15-year agreement with a 5-year option. This is a big bet by Avelo that it will work. I don’t know what the penalties are for leaving early, but I imagine Avelo would have to pay the city/county back if it did that (and didn’t go out of business).
For Avelo, this is not a sure thing by any stretch. Avelo has already tried to make a go of things at MCO itself, and a spokesperson confirmed that Lakeland will not replace the MCO operation but rather complement it.
Avelo started flying to MCO from New Haven in November 2021 and by this time last year (February 2023), the airline was up to serving 11 cities. But it has had its share of ins and outs.
Other than Avelo’s key east coast markets (and Brownsville, oddly enough), nothing is year-round at this point. Most of the shorter-haul east coast stuff didn’t work. Avelo seems to do best heading more midwest, but that’s probably because they are getting local money in those cities.
So maybe the idea is that Lakeland will give Avelo enough of a differentiator that it can serve some of these crowded markets and attract more traffic even during the brutal summer. We aren’t talking about huge frequencies here. Avelo only rarely goes big in a market, so 2-3x weekly is more likely. Maybe it can scrape together enough demand bleeding over from Orlando and Tampa to combine with local traffic and eke out a living.
Of course, we really don’t know how this will work, because nobody has tried Lakeland for so long. Only actually putting airplanes in the market will prove whether this is a good opportunity or just a waste of time of money. It’s just an awfully long commitment to make for something that’s such a big question mark.
