EPRI’s findings in its latest report, which is based on public information about existing data centers, estimates of industry growth, and private electricity demand forecasts by industry experts, could force organizations to re-evaluate electricity costs in the face of regional supply challenges.
The organization also looked at those regional impacts of increased AI power demand. In the US, the researchers wrote, “Fifteen states accounted for an estimated 80% of the national data center load in 2023,” with Virginia, Texas, and California leading the pack.
Demands for highly reliable power, requests for power from new generation sources without carbon emissions, and short lead times for connection of two years or less can create local and regional electricity supply challenges, it said.
Overcoming the challenges
To overcome these challenges and allow for data center expansion, the report suggests three essential strategies: Improve data center efficiency and flexibility; coordinate closely between data center developers and utilities regarding power needs, timing, flexibility, and delivery constraints; and develop better modeling tools to anticipate and accommodate data center growth without affecting grid reliability.
Based on its research, EPRI outlined four scenarios for the development of US data center electricity consumption through 2030, with annual growth rates ranging from 3.7% to 15%.
These were based on the assumption of limited public uptake of AI tools coupled with high gains in data center efficiency at one end of the spectrum and rapid expansion of AI applications with fewer efficiency gains at the other.
