In a report assessing the risk of potential regional conflicts over the next six months, the International Crisis Group think tank says tensions could rise further in the disputed waterway, particularly within the Philippines’ 200 nautical-mile exclusive economic zone (EEZ), where confrontations between Beijing and Manila have occurred around several disputed shoals.
The report suggests the Philippines could try to build a more “permanent structure” to fortify its foothold at the Second Thomas Shoal, where its dilapidated World War II-era warship, the BRP Sierra Madre, has been grounded since 1999 and serves as its military outpost amid strong objections from China.
“In turn, Beijing could seek to prevent Manila from installing a more permanent structure, increase its activities on uninhabited islands/reefs near Second Thomas Shoal, increase its presence in the Philippines’ EEZ or prevent Manila’s energy exploration near Reed Bank,” the report says, referring to the tablemount near the Second Thomas Shoal.
Jose Manuel Romualdez, the Philippine ambassador to the United States, denied media reports in June that the country was reinforcing the marooned warship to prevent it from disintegrating.
However, observers said the Philippines might want to seize on recent diplomatic developments to strengthen its presence at the shoal, referred to as the Ayungin Shoal by Filipinos.
