A TACTICAL WIN FOR ISRAEL WITH POTENTIAL DOWNSIDES
Even though Israel has not claimed responsibility for the assassination, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government may view it as a tactical win. It continues to showcase Israel’s ability to target high-profile adversaries.
Israel has either confirmed it has (or is believed to have) eliminated other Hamas leaders, such as deputy political chief Saleh al-Arouri and deputy chief of military operations Marwan Issa.
This week, Israel also claimed responsibility for killing a senior Hezbollah commander, Fuad Shukr, in a strike in Lebanon. On Thursday (Aug 1), the Israel army announced that Hamas military chief Mohammed Deif was killed in a strike it carried out last month in Gaza.
However, given the significance of Haniyeh to Hamas and the fact the killing occurred in Tehran, it comes with significant risks and potential downsides.
The assassination will almost certainly hinder the ceasefire negotiations between Hamas and Israel. This will complicate efforts to secure the release of the remaining Israeli hostages. The Israeli public is already deeply divided, with the government facing criticism for its security failures in the Oct 7 attack and its inability to bring the hostages home.
Cracks have also begun to emerge between Israeli military leaders and the government over the war in Gaza.
In this context, the assassination of Haniyeh is unlikely to unite Israelis. Instead, it may exacerbate existing divisions, particularly if it leads to more conflict.
