Russia is still hopeful about the potential delivery of Su-35 Flanker-E fighter jets to Indonesia, despite delays in the deal that have caused considerable uncertainty. According to Russian Ambassador to Jakarta, Sergey Tolchenov, the contract for the sale of the Su-35s remains on hold, not canceled, and could eventually move forward once the political landscape in Indonesia becomes more favorable. This statement, made during an interview with the Russian news agency TASS, suggests Russia’s optimism that the deal will be fulfilled, despite its current suspension.
Tolchenov explained that the deal is “frozen,” rather than terminated, and that he expects it will eventually be revived, likely under the next Indonesian government. He also mentioned that there remains significant interest within Indonesia for Russian-made aviation technology, which includes the Su-35s. “It hasn’t been canceled; it’s just paused. We believe it will be implemented eventually,” he added, underscoring Russia’s anticipation that the deal will come to fruition, possibly in the future political climate.
The Indonesian decision to freeze the Su-35 deal dates back to 2021, but the deal has been hanging in the balance since as early as 2020. Back then, Indonesian authorities were reported to have decided to abandon the contract altogether. Bloomberg reported in March 2020 that Indonesia had opted to walk away from the deal, but it wasn’t until 2021 that the agreement was officially frozen due to shifting political and economic conditions, both in Indonesia and globally.
Under the initial agreement, Indonesia had planned to purchase 11 Su-35 fighter jets, a deal that was expected to be executed over several years. However, the political fallout from Russia’s military actions and the imposition of international sanctions made it increasingly difficult for Indonesia to move forward. As a result, Indonesia has sought alternatives, balancing its defense needs against complex political pressures and financial realities.
The deal’s suspension has not been entirely straightforward. Some Indonesian officials, such as Ambassador to Russia Jose Tavares, have insisted that the contract was never fully canceled but merely “put on hold” due to external factors, including political and economic challenges. Tavares has hinted that if the geopolitical climate becomes more accommodating, perhaps with a relaxation of Western sanctions, Indonesia might reconsider the deal.
However, the situation is far from clear-cut. Former Indonesian Air Force Chief Air Marshal Fadjar Prasetyo has gone as far as to declare the deal effectively dead, citing the prolonged acquisition process and the looming threat of U.S. sanctions as primary deterrents.
Since freezing the Su-35 deal, Indonesia has been exploring a range of alternatives to meet its growing air defense requirements. These alternatives have been chosen not only for their operational capabilities but also in light of Indonesia’s strained diplomatic relationships and the financial constraints of maintaining such a large-scale defense procurement program.
One of the strongest contenders to replace the Su-35 is the F-15EX, the latest version of the American-made F-15 fighter. This jet boasts state-of-the-art technology and unmatched combat capabilities, making it a top choice for any air force. However, the F-15EX comes with a significant price tag—likely much higher than that of the Su-35—meaning Indonesia would have to carefully weigh the benefits against the costs. Moreover, securing a deal for this aircraft would require Indonesia to navigate the complex political landscape between the two countries, given that the U.S. has historically had restrictions on arms sales to certain nations.
Another viable alternative is the Saab JAS 39 Gripen, a Swedish multirole fighter known for its operational efficiency and affordability. The Gripen is an attractive option for Indonesia because it offers a solid mix of performance and cost-effectiveness. Though it may not match the Su-35 in terms of sheer power, it’s versatile and offers a lower operational cost, making it a practical solution for a country with limited defense spending. The Gripen’s ability to integrate smoothly with existing Air Force systems makes it a worthy candidate.
Indonesia is also considering the F-16 Fighting Falcon, a jet it already operates in an older version. The F-16V Viper—the newest and most advanced variant of the F-16—could offer a relatively cost-effective upgrade, improving Indonesia’s air defense capabilities without having to completely overhaul its existing fleet. While the F-16V would provide an immediate boost in performance, it may not deliver the advanced technology that the Su-35 was expected to bring.
The F-35, a fifth-generation stealth fighter, has also been discussed as a potential option. However, it remains an unlikely choice due to its high cost and the political complexities surrounding arms sales to non-NATO nations. The F-35’s steep price and the logistical challenges associated with its maintenance would likely place it out of reach for Indonesia, given its defense budget constraints.
While Russia has primarily been linked with the Su-35 deal, there have been discussions about other potential Russian aircraft, such as adding more MiG-29s to Indonesia’s fleet. The MiG-29 is known for solid performance, but it lacks the advanced technology of the Su-35, making it a less favorable option for modernizing Indonesia’s air defenses in the long term.
As Indonesia continues to evaluate its options, the decision on which fighter jets to procure remains uncertain. The country is under considerable pressure to modernize its air force amid escalating regional tensions, budget limitations, and the complexities of international diplomacy. Indonesia’s choice will likely hinge on a combination of cost, technological superiority, and political considerations.
Geopolitical factors play a key role in the decision-making process. The U.S., along with its allies, has imposed sanctions on Russia following the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, and these sanctions could influence Indonesia’s decision to freeze the Su-35 deal. Should these sanctions be lifted or eased, there could be renewed interest in the Russian aircraft. However, the reality is that Indonesia must also maintain strong relationships with other global powers, particularly the U.S., as well as with neighboring countries, all of which affect the broader strategic calculus.
In the end, the Su-35 deal remains frozen, and while Russia remains hopeful that it could be revived, Indonesia faces a challenging path ahead as it seeks to bolster its air defense capabilities in an increasingly complex global landscape.
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