Russians thwart Israeli attack on Tartus, shoot down 13 missiles

The Russian Armed Forces reportedly intercepted and shot down 13 Israeli missiles over Syrian airspace. This occurred during an Israeli Air Force attempt to launch an attack on Tartus, a city located on Syria’s western Mediterranean coast. 

Initial reports of these intercepted Israeli missiles emerged on September 24 from Iran’s Mehr News Agency. This information was later mirrored by Azerbaijan’s News.az. On the 26th, MWM [Military Watch Magazine] reported that 13 missiles were downed by Russian units in Syria. Following these reports, the news circulated on Russian social media, though it’s important to note that neither Russia nor Israel has officially confirmed that Russian units shot down these 13 missiles.

Details on the specific types of missiles involved are sparse, with various sources simply referring to them as “Israeli missiles.” Typically, the Israeli Air Force utilizes an array of precision-guided munitions, such as Delilah and Popeye cruise missiles, which are engineered for deep strikes on high-value targets. Identifying the exact nature of the intercepted missiles could offer valuable insights into the capabilities of both Israeli military precision and Russian air defense systems. 

The Russian military’s footprint in Syria is heavily centered in the western province of Latakia, mainly around Khmeimim Airbase and a naval facility in Tartus. These locations have become increasingly crucial for Russia, especially with Khmeimim Airbase’s expansion to host strategic bombers capable of launching nuclear-capable missiles targeting NATO’s southern borders.

While Russia has traditionally refrained from using its air defense systems to intercept attacks from Israel, Turkey, and Western forces, the high strategic value of Tartus and its surroundings suggests that intervention by Russian air defenses is quite possible. 

Israel’s missile strikes in Syria are primarily driven by its aim to curb Iranian influence and military buildup in the region. By targeting military bases and weapons depots used by Iran-backed groups, Israel seeks to break supply lines and stop the flow of advanced armaments to these factions.

Recently, a missile strike on Tartus highlighted Israel’s resolve to protect its security interests amidst a complex geopolitical landscape. The presence of Russian forces further complicates the situation. 

At Khmeimim Airbase, Russia has deployed an array of advanced air defense systems. These include the long-range S-400 and S-300V4, the medium-range BuK-M2, and the short-range Pantsir-S, alongside various electronic warfare assets. In the past, Pantsir systems have been extensively used to intercept attacks from Islamist insurgent groups.

These insurgent groups have received significant support from Turkey, Israel, and several Western countries. While Israeli cruise missile attacks on Syria typically use subsonic missiles, the S-400 and S-300V4 systems have shown the capability to intercept hypersonic targets traveling at speeds over Mach 8. Depending on the missiles equipped, these systems can engage targets at ranges up to 400 kilometers, even reaching into Israeli airspace and beyond. 

If Russian air defense systems engage Israeli missiles, it could mark their first kinetic action in the Syrian theater. Russia relies heavily on ground-based air defenses due to the absence of a substantial fleet of modern fifth-generation fighters and its relatively limited fourth-generation fighter numbers. This reliance is especially pronounced in Syria, where the Russian fighter presence is small compared to the much larger fleets of Western Bloc countries, Israel, and Turkey.

Although Russian air defenses have yet to engage Israeli, Turkish, and Western aircraft and missiles violating Syrian airspace directly, the data from their sensors has often guided Syrian air defenses in intercepting incoming threats. 

For Syria, this collaboration could be a game-changer. If Russian systems like the S-400 and S-300V4 are actively used to intercept missiles, it could significantly boost the operational effectiveness of Syrian air defenses, which have had difficulties countering Israeli airstrikes in the past.

The integration of Russian technology could lead to a more coordinated defense posture, allowing Syrian forces to respond more effectively to future threats. However, this raises concerns about the risk of escalation, as improved Syrian defenses might embolden Iranian forces and their proxies to operate more aggressively in the region. 

The supply of modern Buk-M2 medium-range air defense systems to Syria has enhanced interoperability. The Russian Air Force has also deployed Su-34 and Su-35 fighters from Khmeimim Airbase on multiple occasions to intercept Western, Turkish, and Israeli aircraft over Syrian territory. For instance, on August 26, 2019, two Su-35S jets intercepted Israeli fighters over the Mediterranean Sea, forcing them to retreat as they were preparing to attack Syrian targets.

On September 10 of the same year, Su-35s intercepted multiple Israeli aircraft over southern Syria, preventing them from launching airstrikes. Just nine days later, a pair of Su-35s thwarted Israeli attempts to attack the suburbs of the Syrian capital, Damascus. 

On November 12, Su-35s once again intercepted an Israeli fighter, preventing airstrikes on Damascus. Similarly, on December 7, multiple Israeli aircraft were intercepted by Su-35s and forced to retreat during an attempt to bomb Syria’s Tiyas Air Base, their primary operational facility. Most post-2010 interception incidents remain unconfirmed. 

Looking ahead, the increased engagement of Russian air defense systems in intercepting Israeli missiles could have significant implications. If Russia continues to actively defend Syrian airspace, it might heighten tensions not just between Israel and Syria, but also with the United States and its allies. 

This scenario could create a more volatile environment in the Eastern Mediterranean, prompting further military responses from Israel or additional deployments from NATO nations. The situation has the potential to escalate into a broader conflict, with regional powers needing to reassess their military strategies and alliances in response to a more assertive Russian presence.

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