The United States has denied an export license for advanced missiles to Norway. This information comes from the Norwegian resource Teknisk Ukeblad, and it has been echoed by several European media outlets. The denial specifically concerns modern GMLRS-ER artillery missiles, though the reasons behind Washington’s decision remain under wraps. In addition to the GMLRS-ER, Norway has also been blocked from acquiring another critical artillery system, the long-range Precision Strike Missile [PrSM].
The U.S. choice to withhold the sale of GMLRS-ER and Precision Strike Missiles [PrSM] to Norway, despite the long-standing alliance between the two nations, may stem from various strategic reasons. However, neither government has provided a public explanation for the move.
Considering the complex geopolitics, the U.S. might be uneasy about Norway possessing such advanced missile systems, especially given its close proximity to Russia. Norway’s strategic location and NATO membership could mean that deploying these weapons might escalate regional tensions, possibly provoking a strong reaction from Russia. The U.S. is understandably concerned about altering the military equilibrium in this delicate area.
Further substantiating this point, the evolving dynamics of the Russia-Germany-USA relationship can be highlighted. Washington announced mid-year that by 2026, it plans to station missiles with a comparable range in Germany, underscoring the strategic calculations at play.
Conversely, the GMLRS-ER and PrSM systems are at the forefront of advanced technology, especially valued for their long-range precision strike abilities. There is a compelling reason for the US to tightly regulate the distribution of these systems to prevent their misuse in conflicts that do not align with American interests. Additionally, these systems play a crucial role in US military strategies, particularly against threats in the Indo-Pacific and European regions. Concerns about operational security and the possibility of reverse engineering also make the US cautious about outsourcing these technologies.
Moreover, the US has been focusing on rapidly expanding and safeguarding its missile stockpile in light of global events like Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This heightened focus on domestic needs and the inherent challenges in increasing production capacity are further reasons behind the hesitation to export these systems, even to trustworthy allies such as Norway.
Given these factors, the United States seems to be navigating a careful strategy, balancing its alliance commitments with broader strategic and security goals.
This approach is evident from the fact that Washington has approved part of Norway’s defense package, primarily aimed at protecting Norway’s territorial integrity in potential conflicts with Russia without ensuring the deployment of missiles across borders. Specifically, this involves the American M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System [HIMARS]. According to the German source HartPunkt, the US government has agreed to the potential sale of this system, along with a package of ammunition that includes older GMLRS missiles and M57 Army Tactical Missile System [ATACMS] ballistic missiles.
It’s worth noting that the US decision not to sell these advanced missiles to Norway would be less surprising if Poland hadn’t received the go-ahead for GMLRS-ER contributions in February 2023.
One major factor could be Poland’s geographic proximity to the conflict in Ukraine, escalating its need for advanced military capabilities to fend off potential threats. Being a frontline NATO member, Poland’s strategic significance has likely made the U.S. more eager to quickly enhance its defense capabilities. This includes the sale of sophisticated missile systems like the GMLRS-ER, fitting into the larger U.S. strategy of fortifying NATO’s eastern front in reaction to Russian activities in the region.
On the other hand, the U.S. might have different strategic considerations when it comes to Norway. While Norway remains a close ally, its geographical position and specific threats vary from those facing Poland. The U.S. could be wary of sparking regional arms races or upsetting stability in Scandinavia by deploying advanced missile systems there. Also, withholding these systems from Norway might be part of a strategy to retain leverage or control over key strategic capabilities within NATO.
Furthermore, Poland’s acquisition might be part of an extensive modernization drive backed by the U.S., showcasing a deepening trust in Poland’s capability to manage advanced systems responsibly in a volatile security setting. In contrast, the decision to deny Norway these systems may be influenced by concerns over technology transfer, differing security evaluations, or other strategic considerations that have not been disclosed.
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