Which triple-A bats could impact Blue Jays’ offence?

Even after scoring nine runs in three of their last four games, The Toronto Blue Jays enter Friday with the fourth-lowest scoring lineup in the majors — and any improvement to the team’s offence is unlikely to come from outside the organization.

When Ross Atkins addressed the media last week he acknowledged the possibility of an early-season trade, but also said that there would be a premium to be paid in any deal. Not only would the price be high but any immediate-term offensive upgrade would be coming to a team with the worst record in its division and that sit at 24.6 per cent according to FanGraphs and dip as low as 15.5 per cent at Baseball-Reference.

That doesn’t mean the Blue Jays should give up on 2024, but it would make far more sense for the team’s front office to let things play out a bit than make aggressive additions at the moment. This team is more likely to be a midseason seller than a buyer — and it won’t veer off that course unless it starts winning at an impressive clip. 

As a result, finding the offensive boost the Blue Jays need so desperately is almost certain a matter of getting improved production in-house. Some of that should happen organically with the players who are getting penciled into the lineup on a daily basis.

But another route to offensive improvement that might be more impactful — and exciting for fans tired of the status quo — is an influx of talent from Triple-A. That’s something that Atkins noted on Saturday, saying the team ‘had a lot of good players there’ while at the same time questioning their fit in the team’s lineup.

That may sound vague, but it’s rather clear who Atkins is referring to because the top-5 Buffalo Bisons players by OPS are also five of the six position players at Triple-A on Toronto’s 40-man roster — the other being third catcher Brian Serven who won’t be recalled unless there’s an injury.

Below is a summary of the players who could be called upon to improve the Blue Jays offence as 2024 goes on, and a look at how likely they are to make an impact.

Orelvis Martinez

AAA stats:.245/.333/.528 in 184 plate appearances with 12 home runs and a 115 wRC+

Average FanGraphs projection: .216/.281/.395 with a 93 wRC+

Positional fit: The Blue Jays have the defensive versatility to accommodate most position players into their lineup and Martinez has primarily played second base this year. 

The idea of Toronto slotting in its top hitting prospect at a spot where the team doesn’t have a full-time player blocking the way may sound appealing on the surface, but it is a new position for Martinez who has spent most of his pro career on the left side on the infield.

It’s unclear if Martinez would be ready to slot in at the keystone after just 53 minor-league starts there over the last two seasons and his second position — third base — is one he’s logged just five starts at this year. 

What’s the impact potential?: Theoretically Martinez brings the kind of power bat the Blue Jays desperately need, but his projections aren’t particularly strong and even with 12 home runs in his first 43 games of 2024 his wRC+ (115) is more good than great.

Although those numbers don’t jump off the page, his Statcast data is impressive. Martinez’s max exit velocity in 2024 (115.2 mph) would rank second to Vladimir Guerrero Jr. on the Blue Jays and 16th among all MLB hitters. 

He’s also handled velocity well at Triple-A. Against pitches 95 mph or harder Martinez has slugged .923 with a relatively modest whiff rate of 17.2 per cent. That isn’t a perfect indicator that he’ll destroy MLB pitching, but it suggests he hasn’t just been feasting on soft-tossing journeymen.

The 22-year-old has cut down on his strikeouts, but he has difficulty squaring up the ball at times. While he puts the ball in the air a tonne, he’s also run an infield flyball rate above 20 per cent at every level since 2021.

It’s tough to bet against Martinez’s gifts, but there would be a wide range of outcomes for him in the majors if he arrived in 2024.

Addison Barger

AAA stats: .289/.434/.535 in 144 plate appearances with 5 home runs and a 153 wRC+

Average FanGraphs projection: .233/.302/.378 with a 95 wRC+

Positional fit: Barger has a big arm and solid mobility which allows him to fit at third base or in either outfield corner. In his brief MLB cameo earlier this season, his sprint speed ranked in the 62nd percentile and he uncorked a throw over 100 mph — something only eight other players have managed in 2024.

Playing at third base would mean taking at-bats away from Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Ernie Clement, while games in the outfield might eat into Kevin Kiermaier’s playing with Springer and Varsho relatively firmly in place.

What’s the impact potential?: Barger is in a bit of a sweet spot because he’s experienced, but he still has upside. He possesses some of the power Martinez brings to the table, but he’s two years older and has performed at a higher level in Buffalo.

Add in the fact he brings a lefty bat to a lineup that could use more from that side of the plate, and it makes sense that the Blue Jays called on him earlier in the season.

Unfortunately for Barger, he didn’t shine in his brief taste of the game’s highest level, managing one hit in 18 plate appearances with six strikeouts. His bat-tracking data suggested he brought notable bat speed to the table, but that didn’t result in tangible production.

Barger’s Triple-A numbers are impressive and his projections are respectable, but his performance against high-velocity pitches is a red flag. At Triple-A he’s only managed two hits against pitches 95 mph or more and both came off the bat at less than 80 mph.

Spencer Horwitz

AAA stats: .316/.438/.456 in 208 plate appearances with 2 home runs and a 140 wRC+

Average FanGraphs projection: .253/.340/.372 with a 108 wRC+

Positional fit: The fact the Horwitz profiles as a 1B/DH is his biggest obstacle towards making a big-league impact.There’s an argument to be made that he’s an upgrade over Daniel Vogelbach as a lefty pinch hitter/occasional DH right now, but it’d be tricky for him to find significant playing time on a club that employs Justin Turner and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Horwitz has played some left field in the minors, but he’s only started three games there in 2024, suggesting that’s not an option in serious consideration for the big-league club.

What’s the impact potential?: Of all the players on this list, Horwitz is the one most likely to hold his own offensively in the majors. The 26-year-old has dominated Triple-A pitching in each of the last two seasons and has some excellent projections to show for it.

He also produced solid numbers in 15 games with the Blue Jays in 2023, posting a 106 wRC+. Horwitz’s numbers against velo are good too as he has a .407 wOBA versus pitches 95 mph or more over the last two seasons at Buffalo.

The issue he faces is whether an offensive profile that skews towards on-base ability over power is one the Blue Jays want to feature in their 1B/DH slots — particularly considering the team lacks power. 

Although his projections are solid, it’s also reasonable to be skeptical about the scalability of his patience because big-league pitchers are better at attacking the zone than their minor-league counterparts — and his relatively modest power might not create enough of a deterrent for him to keep up a massive walk rate.

Nathan Lukes

AAA stats: .336/.404/.504 in 146 plate appearances with 5 home runs and a 137 wRC+

Average FanGraphs projection: .256/.313/.364 with a 95 wRC+

Positional fit: Lukes can play around the outfield, but he’s spent less time in centre lately with just 11 pro starts there since the beginning of 2023.

Looking at Lukes primarily as a corner outfielder, his road to playing time would likely require an injury to one of the team’s starters or perhaps a Kiermaier trade. The Blue Jays outfield picture is a bit murky because they have so many infielders capable of chasing flyballs like Cavan Biggio, Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Davis Schneider, but no dedicated fourth outfielder.

A world where Lukes gets some run is probably one where Toronto still has competitive aspirations in 2024, but is dealing with injuries. Considering he turns 30 in July, he’s a player the Blue Jays are likely to call on if they feel like he can provide instant help as opposed to a prospect they want to take a long look at.

What’s the impact potential?: Lukes is a tough player to interpret because on one hand he hit .360 at Triple-A last year and he’s following that up with a .336 mark. Alternatively, his age is relevant and he’s been working primarily at that level since 2019.

Multiple project systems see him as an above-average hitter in the majors and that’s corroborated by the fact he has a .465 wOBA against high-velocity pitches over the past two years.

That said, the Blue Jays have had Lukes in the organization since 2022 and have given him 31 at-bats at the highest level. He’s on this list due to his strong Triple-A production and 40-man roster status, but if the team perceived him as someone capable of changing their offensive woes they would’ve handled him differently since he joined the organization.

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Leo Jimenez

AAA stats: .248/.405/.376 in 158 plate appearances with 4 home runs and a 115 wRC+

Average FanGraphs projection: .238/.320/.344 with a 95 wRC+

Positional fit: Jimenez is a legitimate shortstop who has dabbled at second base in recent years. He has the tools to play around the infield in theory, but he’s only played one inning at third base in his pro career.

Getting a lengthy look at short would require a Bichette injury — or trade if the season goes down the drain. Neither of those things are impossible, but if Jimenez’s time comes, it’s easy to imagine him sliding in at second.

What’s the impact potential?: Some of the more optimistic projection systems have Jimenez nearing league-average production; it’s unlikely that he’ll be part of some kind of offensive turnaround in 2024.

If Jimenez makes it to the big leagues the Blue Jays will be interested in the all-around contribution he’s able to make as opposed to seeing him as someone who specifically boosts their run-scoring capabilities.

That said, Jimenez deserves plenty of credit for his stellar .405 OBP at Triple-A this season and he has produced a max exit velocity (109.0 mph) that’s better than Horwitz or Lukes, and similar to Davis Schneider (109.3 mph).

Jimenez’s offensive profile brings to mind similar questions to Horwitz as his ability to draw walks may not be scalable at the MLB level and he has just one hit on high-velocity pitches this season.

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